5. Results
One parameter for the education and training effort is the final educational profile of young people, as it shows the final level of educational attainment and the distribution on type of education. The profile can illustrate whether the result of the effort is in accordance with the current targets of the educational policy for instance whether a sufficient number of young people complete a course of education, and whether the distribution is in accordance with the political targets. The transition from education and training to the labour market is also a central target when it comes to showing the results of the total education and training effort. It is a target of central importance to the education sector to prepare young people for a place in the labour market. Although the young people are ever so well-qualified, their place in the labour market also depends on the number of older employees leaving the labour market and of the availability of jobs for them. In recent years, there has been a boom in the labour market. For the individual, the income he or she can expect to earn in a lifetime is a way to measure whether it is worth the while to acquire a qualification and more indirectly a way to measure the social rewards of education and training. Finally, figures for the entire workforce and the level of educational attainment of the adult population in general to some extent indicate the possibilities of the country of maintaining at certain level in the labour market as well as a well qualified population which can hold its own in international comparisons. 5.1 Educational Attainment of the Population in Denmark and the Other EU-countries80% of the Danish population have an upper secondary qualification as a minimum. The level of educational attainment is high compared with the other EU-countries, only Germany has a higher level. In Denmark, 54% of the adult (25-59-year-old) population had upper secondary education and 26% higher education as their highest level of educational attainment in 1997. 20% of the adult Danish population thus only had basic school as their highest level of educational attainment. According to this survey, the level of educational attainment is high in Denmark compared with the other EU-countries. In the European Union on average, 40% had upper secondary education and 20% higher education as their highest level of educational attainment. The proportion of the adult population, who as a minimum has an upper secondary qualification, makes up 80% in Denmark against an EU-average of 59%. Only Germany has a higher proportion than Denmark, with 82%. Table 5.1 Level of educational attainment to the population in Denmark and the other EU-countries. 25-59-year-olds 1997
Figure 5.1 Proportion of 25-59-years-olds with upper secondary education as a minimum in Denmark and the other EU-countries 1997
Source: "Education across the European Union. Statistics and indicators 1998",EU. 5.2 The Educational Profile of a Year Group77% of the 1998-year group is expected to complete at vocationally qualifying course of education. 47% of the girls complete a higher education programme against 34% of the boys. It is possible to estimate what the final educational profile will be like for those young people who leave the basic school in 1998. The result shows the proportion who are expected to complete a vocationally qualifying course of education, i.e. a vocational upper secondary or a higher education programme. The results give an overview of the flows in the Danish education system and can popularly be described as the end result which the year group of pupils at the 8th form level arrive at, if for the next 25 years they display a behaviour like the one displayed by their older fellow students in the course of the year. The educational profile figures are indicators showing the current status of the flows in the education system, and they reflect the changes of the year in study preferences, educational structures etc. The flow through the Danish education system has become more effective. According to the 1998-profile, 77% of a year group will complete a vocationally qualifying course of education (to this should however be added some adult education programmes, which are not included in the calculation). At the beginning of the 1980s, this proportion was only approx. 60%. 14% of the 1998-year group will leave the education system without any qualification at all and will have acquired neither a competency for further studies nor a vocational competency, and 9% will leave only with a leaving examination a general upper secondary level. More girls than boys complete a higher education programme. 80% of the girls complete a vocationally qualifying course of education against only 74% of the boys. The girls are overrepresented in higher education and most significantly in medium-cycle higher education. 29% of the girls complete a mediumcycle higher education programme against only 14% of the boys. On the other hand, more boys go for short-cycle higher education and for vocational education and training. Table 5.2 Expected total educational profile o a year group, by level of education and gender 1998
Note: The sum of students enter ng and leaving the individual boxes may devate due to rounding up/down. Excl. egu, fuu, product on schools etc. and adult education. Figure 5.2 Expected total educational profile of a year group, by level of competency and gender 1998
Source: Statistics Denmark and model calculations made by the Ministry of Education's Statistics and Information D v s on. 5.3 Educational Status of Selected Year Groups after Intake to Higher EducationOn 1 October 1996, the educational status of the 1981/82-year group was that 82.3% of those who started on a higher education programme for the first time had completed the programme or were enrolled in another programme. The status of the 22,303 students, who started in higher education for the first time in 1981/82, was as follows on 1 October 1996: 82.3% had completed or were still enrolled in education. Of these, 67.4% had completed the programme they initially started. 12.7% had completed another programme, while 2% were enrolled in another programme. The total dropout rate for year group 1981/82 was 32.5%. Of these, 14.7% were enrolled in or had completed the programme they had most recently commenced. From the dropout, it can furthermore be seen that approx. 1/3 were employed, and only 1.2% were unemployed. Early dropout was almost of no consequence for the proportion affected by unemployment (after 12 months, only 1.7% were unemployed). For year group 1981/82, only 5.3% of those who dropped out of higher education were outside the labour market (e.g. receiving disability benefits etc.) or had provided no information about their labour market status (including immigration, death etc.). It is remarkable that after 12 months 2.3% of those who start in higher education for the first time were totally outside the labour market. The explanation there may be that young people with mental, physical or social problems enrol in education to avoid the dole queue. Some of these drop out rapidly and for instance pass to social security benefits or the like. Year group 1987/88 does not differ much from year group 1981/82. 1987/88 is however based on a shorter "passage". It is inter alia reflected in the fact that on 1 October a bigger proportion of students were enrolled in the programme they had started on (2.6%). 75.9% completed a programme. Of these, 65.8% completed the programme they initially started. Also for this year group, only a very small proportion of those who dropped out of education were affected by unemployment. Table 5.3 Status of year group 1981/82 and 1987/88, first time entrance to higher education
Due to rounding up/down, the sums may not always add up to 100 %. Figure 5.3 Status of year group 1981/82 and 1987/88 on 1 October 1996
Source: "Uddannelsesredegørelse -1998", Danish Ministry of education. 5.4 Unemployment and EducationThe unemployment increased for all groups of education between 1989 and 1993. In 1998, we find the lowest unemployment rate: 5.6%. The overall unemployment is still higher for women than for men. It is generally the case that the higher the level of educational attainment is, the lower is the risk of unemployment, but there are exceptions to the rule. The overall unemployment fell from 8.7% in 1989 to 5.6% in 1998. From 1989 to 1993, the unemployment increased to 11.4%. After this, there has been a constant drop. The drop in the unemployment from 1993 to 1994 benefited most groups of education except persons who had not completed a vocationally qualifying course of education and those with a long-cycle higher education qualification. The unemployment increased from 1993 to 1994 for the group without any vocationally qualifying education, from 14.2% to 14.6%. The unemployment of the long-cycle higher education graduates increased by 0.1 percentage point. Persons who have not completed a vocationally qualifying course of education or a vocational education and training programme are generally much more affected by unemployment than persons who have completed a vocationally qualifying course of education. For the group who have not completed a vocationally qualifying course of education the unemployment was 7.2% in 1998 against 11.2% in 1989. For persons who have completed a school period etc. without have completed the main course, the unemployment was almost as high in 1997 as for the group who had not completed a vocationally qualifying course of education (in certain years the unemployment was even higher). Persons without a vocationally qualifying education are in much greater risk than others of being affected by unemployment. For persons with a vocational education and training etc. qualification, the unemployment rate was 5.2% in 1998. The higher education area had the lowest unemployment rates in 1998. Persons with short-cycle higher education qualifications had an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Persons with medium-cycle higher education qualifications had the lowest unemployment rate of all groups (2.7% in 1998). The unemployment rate of the long-cycle higher education graduates was 4%. In 1998, the unemployment of women - apart from those with medium-cycle higher education qualifications -was generally higher than that of men. The overall unemployment of the women made up 6.6% against that of the men, which was 4.8%. Table 5.4 Unemployment, by level of education and gender,1989 1998
Note: Comprises 16-66-year-olds.Registered unemployed in the course of the year,cf.Statistics Denmark's CRAM and RAS-data. 1) Incl.short VET-programmes. Figure 5.4 Total unemployment, by level of education, 1989 1998
Source: "Statistiske Efterretninger, Arbejdsmarked", various years, Statistics Denmark. 5.5 Youth Unemployment by Level of Educational Attainment in Denmark and in Selected CountriesThe youth unemployment is generally low in Denmark. Both in Denmark and in a number of other countries, the unemployment among young people depends on the level of educational attainment so the risk of unemployment is smaller for persons with an upper secondary or higher education qualification than for persons with a basic school qualification as the highest level of educational attainment. In 1996, the unemployment rate among the 20-24-year-olds was 9.9% in Denmark, which is much lower than the OECD-average of 21.3%. Only few countries have a significantly lower rate of youth unemployment, e.g. Austria and Switzerland. Sweden and Finland, on the other hand, had a significantly higher youth unemployment in 1996, in particular among the 20-24-year-olds with a basic school or upper secondary qualification as the highest level of educational attainment. For all groups, the unemployment rate is lower in Denmark than the OECD-average. The OECD has pointed at the alternance training principle in the vocational education and training programmes as one of the reasons for the low rate of youth unemployment in Denmark. The unemployment of the 20-24-year-olds in Denmark depends on the level of educational attainment. The rate of unemployment of young people with a basic school qualification as the highest level of educational attainment was 14.7% in 1996, whereas it was only 6.8% for young people with a medium-or long-cycle higher education qualification. The unemployment of young people with a short-cycle higher education qualification is however higher (11.1%) than that of young people with an upper secondary qualification (7.0%). The unemployment of 25-29-year-olds with a short-cycle higher education qualification is at the same level as that of the 25-29-year-olds with a medium-or long-cycle higher education qualification. In the OECD, the average rate of unemployment is very high (21.5%) for young people with a basic school qualification as the highest level of educational attainment. For the other levels of education, the unemployment rate is at the same level, around 15% in the OECD on average. In the other Nordic countries, the risk of unemployment drops with the level of educational attainment of the young people. In Greece, the trend goes in the opposite direction, as young people with a higher education qualification as the highest level of educational attainment have twice as high a risk of unemployment as young people with a basic school qualification as the highest level of educational attainment. Table 5.5 Unemployment among the 20-24-year-olds, by level of educational attainment in Denmark and selected countries 1996
Figure 5.5 Unemployment among the 20-24-year-olds, by level of educational attainment in Denmark and selected countries 1996
Kilde: "Education at a Glance 1998",OECD. 5.6 Income by Level of Educational Attainment Denmark and in Selected CountriesIn Denmark, as in other countries, the income normally increases with the level of educational attainment. In Denmark, salary differences are however relatively small compared with other countries. Higher levels of educational attainment are normally followed by higher incomes. This is the case in Denmark as well as in other countries. The income spread does however vary a lot from one country to another. In Denmark, there was, in 1996, a relatively small difference in the income of persons with an upper secondary qualification and a short-cycle higher education qualification as the highest level of educational attainment. There are bigger differences between persons with a short-cycle higher education qualification and persons with a medium-or long-cycle (candidatus) higher education qualification, but seen in an international context the difference is not very big. Persons with a basic school qualification as the highest level of educational attainment earn somewhat less than persons with an upper secondary qualification, and the difference for these groups is bigger than in for instance Sweden and Finland for both men and women. The income spread was generally big in for instance the USA, Ireland and Great Britain, whereas it was smaller in for instance Sweden and Norway it was however somewhat bigger there than in Denmark. The income spread for women is smaller than it is for men in Denmark, and the income spread for women is very small seen in an international context. In some countries (except for the Nordic countries), the income spread is bigger for women than for men. This no doubt can be attributed to the higher employment frequency of women in the Nordic countries. Part of the explanation to why people with a low level of educational attainment have a so relatively low income may be that there are relatively many in the labour market without any formal vocational qualifications but with long general education supplemented by different forms of continuing training. Continuing training is not included in this survey so the group of unskilled workers in Denmark includes many people with real but no formal qualifications. Table 5.6 Average indexed income for 25-64-year-olds by level of educational attainment and gender in Denmark and in selected countries 1996
1)1994. 2)1995. Note: The income is defined as salaried income. The calculation is not weighted for full-time/part-time. There are great variations between the countries with regard to calculation methods and definitions. Figure 5.6 Average indexed income for 25-64-year-olds, by level of educational attainment and gender in Denmark and in selected countries 1996
Note: Upper secondary education = index 100. Kilde: "Education at Glance 1998",OECD. 5.7 Life Income and Educational AttainmentThe life income is generally higher for persons with a high level of educational attainment and lower for persons with a low level of educational attainment. There are exceptions, however. The computed life income varies -between DKK 9.7 and 20.7 million. The computed life income of persons with different selected educational qualifications is an overall measurement of how much a person benefits economically from moving on in the education system. At a more general level, the life income can be taken as an expression of how much society benefits from investing in education. Such a calculation makes allowances for the fact that some start early in the labour market, and others stay in the education system for a long time and only have limited possibilities of earning money next to their studies. In 1995, all the computed life incomes include pensions. Generally, the life income increases with the level of educational attainment, but there are exceptions to this rule. The figures are not distributed on genders, but there are great variations between so-called typical female professions and typical male professions. Unskilled workers have relatively high life incomes in Denmark. A brewery worker is for instance expected to earn DKK 13.7 million. Among people with vocational education and training qualifications, bricklayers and smiths/machine tool fitters have the highest life income of DKK 13.6 million, whereas a clerical worker employed in the public sector is expected to earn DKK 9.7 million. Persons with medium-cycle higher education qualifications can expect lower life incomes than those with long-cycle higher education qualifications. Nurses are for instance expected to have a life income of DKK 10 million, which is less than half of that of for instance engineering graduates from the Technical University. Persons with long-cycle higher education qualifications are in top when it comes to life incomes. In this group, it is the graduates with a Master's degree in engineering who had the best prospects of having a high total life income in 1995, namely DKK 20.7 million followed by teachers in the Gymnasium with DKK 15.9 million. Law/economics graduates are expected to have a total life income of DKK 15.7 million. Table 5.7 Estimated life income, by level of educational attainment in 1995 and the development in estimated life incomes, 1970 -1995 (blacksmith =index 100)
1) Incl. pension. Figure 5.7 Estimated life income, by level of educational attainment 1995
Note: Notes are not included in the figure -reference is made to the table. Source: The Economic Council: "Stiliserede livsindkomstberegninger for 1995",Working paper 1997:1. 5.8 Educational Attainment of the PopulationThe level of educational attainment in Denmark is getting higher. In recent years, the number of people with a basic school qualification as their highest level of educational attainment has become significantly smaller, and the number of persons with a vocational upper secondary or higher education qualification as their highest level of educational attainment has increased. In 1999, 56.1% of all 15-69-year-olds had completed a vocationally qualifying course of education. In 1999, approx.33% of the 15-69-year-olds only had a basic school qualification as their highest level of educational attainment. This proportion has been decreasing constantly between 1989 and 1999. The decrease constitutes 7.7 percentage points. There are generation variations in the group, as older people have normally received a great deal less education, measured in years, than younger people. A significant proportion of the older people have only had 7 years of schooling. In 1972, the duration of compulsory education was raised to 9 years, which means that after this time largely all have had a least 9 years of schooling. Many, in particular younger people, have participated in different forms of adult education. Finally, part of the group with a basic school qualification have for instance followed a vocational upper secondary programme without completing it. To this should be added the group, for which no data exist (5.8% in 1999), who may in principle have completed a course of education at all levels. In 1999, 5.4% had a general upper secondary qualification as their highest level of educational attainment, 3.6% had a Gymnasium or HF-qualification and 1.8% an HHX-or HTX-qualification. Some of these may have been enrolled in further education without completing it. In 1999, a total of 56.1% had completed a vocationally qualifying course of education. Of these, 36.4% had completed a vocational upper secondary programme and 19.7% a higher education programme. In total, long-cycle higher education graduates made up 4.8%. From 1989 to 1999, the proportion completing a vocational upper secondary programme increased by 2.7 percentage points, and the proportion completing a higher education programme increased by 4.8 percentage points. The total moderate increase in the level of educational attainment inter alia illustrates the number of years it takes to change the total level of educational attainment of the population significantly. It takes many new year groups of better educated young people to offset the lower level of educational attainment of older year groups. So the effect of an increasing proportion of a year group completing upper secondary education and a significantly increased intake to higher education will only make itself properly felt in the course of some years. Table 5.8 Population (15-69-year-olds), by gender and level of educational attainment 1989 1999 The level of educational attainment in Denmark is getting higher. In recent years, the number of people with a basic school qualification as their highest level of educational attainment has become significantly smaller, and the number of persons with a vocational upper secondary or higher education qualification as their highest level of educational attainment has increased.In 1999,56.1% of all 15-69-year-olds had completed a vocationally qualifying course of education. In 1999, approx.33%of the 15-69-year-olds only had a basic school qualification as their highest level of educational attainment .This proportion has been decreasing constantly between 1989 and 1999.The decrease constitutes 7.7 percentage points. There are generation variations in the group, as older people have normally received a great deal less education, measured in years, than younger people. A significant proportion of the older people have only had 7 years of schooling. In 1972, the duration of compulsory education was raised to 9 years, which means that after this time largely all have had a least 9 years of schooling. Many, in particular younger people, have participated in different forms of adult education. Finally, part of the group with a basic school qualification have for instance followed a vocational upper secondary programme without completing it. To this should be added the group, for which not data exist (5.8%in 1999), who may in principle have completed a course of education a all levels. In 1999, 5.4% had a general upper secondary qualification as their highest level of educational attainment, 3.6% had a Gymnasium or HF-qualification and 1.8%an HHX-or HTX-qualification. Some of these may have been enrolled in further education without completing it. In 1999, a total of 56.1% had completed a vocationally qualifying course of education. Of these,36.4% had completed a vocational upper secondary programme and 19.7%a higher education programme. In total, long-cycle higher education graduates made up 4.8%. From 1989 to 1999, the proportion completing a vocational upper secondary programme increased by 2.7 percentage points, and the proportion completing a higher education programme increased by 4.8 percentage points. The total moderate increase in the level of educational attainment inter alia illustrates the number of years i takes to change the total level of educational attainment of the population significantly. It takes many new year groups of better educated young people to offset the lower level of educational attainment of older year groups. So the effect of an increasing proportion of a year group completing upper secondary education and a significantly increased in take to higher education will only make itself properly felt in the course of some years. Table 5.8 Population (15-69-year-olds),by gender and level of educational attainment 1989 -1999
1)The great majority are immigrants and descendants, who have not completed any education in Denmark. Note: Includes 15-69-year-olds not enrolled in education, excl. adult education. Figure 5.8 Population (15-69-year-old), by level of educational attainment in 1989,1994 and 1999
Source: "Statistiske Efterretninger, Befolkningens uddannelse", various years as well as special runs from Statistics Denmark. 5.9 Labour Market Status of Young People not Enrolled in EducationFor the group of young people between 15 and 29 years of age, who were not enrolled in education, 75.6% were in employment in 1998. The unemployment of the group was 6.8%, which is somewhat higher than the average unemployment rate of the population (16-66-year-olds) as such, which in the same year was 5.6%. In 1998, the total population of 15-29-year-olds constituted 606,037, of which 47.6% did not have any vocationally qualifying education. Here, the labour market status is computed for young people between 15 and 29 years who were not enrolled in a formal course of education in relation to highest completed course of education. There are differences in the underlying level of educational attainment of the young people and their subsequent status in the labour market. For the group of 15-29-year-olds not enrolled in education, 75.6% were in employment in 1998. The unemployment rate was 6.8%, which is somewhat higher than the average unemployment rate for the population (16-66-year -olds), which was 5.6% in the same year. There are most women outside the labour force, fewer women in employment, and the unemployment rate is also higher for women. I can also be seen that the lower the educational status is, the higher is the unemployment rate and the greater is the likelihood of being outside the workforce. For those who have a basic school qualification as the highest level of educational attainment, there is a total unemployment of 8.8%, and 29.1% were totally outside the labour market. For those young people who have completed a general upper secondary programme, the employment rate is higher than it is for those who have only completed basic school. For short-cycle, medium-cycle and long-cycle higher education, the employment rate of the young graduates was 91.4%, 93.1% and 87.2%, respectively. The lowest unemployment rate for persons with a higher education qualification is seen in the medium-cycle higher education area - namely 4.2%. Table 5.9 Labour market status of the 15-29-year-olds not enrolled in education, by highest level of educational attainment and gender 1998
Source: "Statistiske Efterretninger, Uddannelse og kultur", 1999: 11, Statistics Denmark.
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